Oil prices: predicting the helplessness of

Oil prices: predicting the helplessness of

August 31, 2006/Dong Xiucheng

The world oil market situation, it's actually just like a huge "casinos", while there are many money opportunity and there is a huge risk. Among them, volatility in the oil industry is one of the most characteristic risks. Both developed and developing countries in the world, Governments have attached great importance to the issue of oil prices, as oil price changes are often directly affects the economic development of States, even affecting national security, has also been affected world economic development. Currently, world Shang many institutions, including some international organization, and Government institutions, and large oil company, and College and research units are constantly to on international oil prices for forecast, forecast method basically is tried to established a to take various changes factors zainei of mathematics model, by economic and mathematics method will some changes factors for quantitative became entered variable, and in by computer software system for simulation calculation, seeking out future period of oil prices forecast value. However, no matter how economists try, they almost can't seem to get in forecasting. Most of the oil price predictions are wrong, international oil prices change often and experts predict the opposite. Cause a problem with the above situation could not explain the Economist's economic theory, also does not explain the mathematical theory and method for predicting oil prices flaws, responsible for the forecast error is the main cause of those factors that impact oil price changes are difficult to accurately quantify, because these interactions influence factors, interwoven, form a large complex systems. When people are predicting oil prices, more often than not based on real-world situations to determine oil prices, oil market but based on the reality of perceptual knowledge.